Who will Petr Pavel let into Strakovka: elections can end without a result
With the upcoming weekend elections, various appeals for participation in the elections are multiplying, as well as speculations about how everything will turn out. We will also try to look into the crystal ball in our section. Although it is nothing more than divination from coffee sediment, the forgotten result could be some form of electoral stalemate.
The last elections ended with a clear result towards forming the government. Even though no survey predicted the victory of the Spolu coalition, the balance of powers before the elections suggested that there could be a change at the political helm. Even a week before the elections, Straka Academy was looking for a new tenant.
However, the situation is fundamentally different from that four years ago. This is mainly due to the factor that has remained constant for three parliamentary battles to the Chamber of Deputies, which is the bearer of the sovereignty of our state (the Czech Republic is a parliamentary republic). In previous elections, the post-election proceedings were managed by Miloš Zeman from the position of a directly elected president, as an established supervisor of the formation of governments.
So, a seasoned political veteran, who spent his entire post-revolutionary life in high politics. Even in retirement he enthusiastically joined the electoral battle now. At the same time, Zeman did not hide the fact that he was trying to transform the parliamentary regime towards a semi-presidential one.
Therefore, establish a regime known from today's France, when President Macron chooses a prime minister who does not have to have a majority in parliament. Zeman proceeded in the same way with his repeated appointment of Andrej Babiš as Prime Minister, without a majority coalition in the Chamber of Deputies behind him. With the president behind him, the chairman of the ANO movement then gained it from the Social Democrats and Communists.
For example, Václav Klaus acted similarly when appointing the government of Mirek Topolánek without confidence and Václav Havel significantly influenced the discussion about the creation of the government, e.g. during his presidency there was no governmental engagement of the then numerous communists.
The current president Petr Pavel indeed comes from a different background than his predecessors, but a constitutional tradition in already the third decade, as our republic refines, is that the president plays a crucial role in the formation of the government. Therefore, president Pavel announced at the end of summer that he will not let anyone into the government who wants to endanger the membership of the Czech Republic in NATO and the EU.
He argues that he has a mandate from the voters. That's true. Originally, Czech presidents had a mandate from deputies and senators, but that has changed and as we have already indicated above, Miloš Zeman took it in a way that he is a full-fledged counterpole of the elected Chamber of Deputies.
It's probably hard to imagine that Petr Pavel sees it the same way, but he holds strong cards, paradoxically thanks to the legacy of Miloš Zeman, whom he strongly demarcated against. In election mathematics, this may mean that potential allies of the ANO's favorite in the form of SPD and Stačilo! may have a problem getting approval from the president due to their policy against NATO and the EU.
In addition, for example, the latest election poll from STEM predicts that among voters there could be a shift in mood towards a repeat of the scenario from previous elections, when relevant political forces narrowly missed entering the Chamber of Deputies. At the same time, the latest survey from NMS does not entirely confirm the trend.
Voters in the Czech Republic also make their decision at the last minute, not only who and why, but also whether to vote at all. If they eventually leave for the cottage an hour earlier and don't have time for the elections, no survey will capture it. So there are many untested variables in the election equation. So why not add another forgotten one in the crystal ball divination?
The result of the mentioned factors then can be speculated that although the ANO movement will be first on the tape, but without the support of the president, which it enjoyed after 8 years of its previous government, the government will be harder to form. A complete novelty would be early elections without the formation of a government. In other countries, such as Israel, this is a completely normal element of democratic life, but in the Czech Republic, once-elected deputies usually do not want to change cards in their own hands. They excuse themselves on the voters, but the belief that early elections are the worst for the voters exists only in the heads of deputies seated in their offices.
In football, bets are sometimes placed on a draw. This can be followed by overtime, and an unexpected result may emerge from it. For example, Topolánek's government in 2007 had only a hundred deputies, which is exactly half of the entire Chamber of Deputies, but in the end he relied on defectors. The numerical result of the elections may not be the result for practical governance.
Sources: author's text, comment, Aktuálně.cz, ČT, Irozhlas.cz
