The world is becoming more dangerous: Russia longs for the restoration of its sphere of influence, Europe and the United States are increasing their defense budgets
After failing to fulfill Donald Trump's original promises to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, and Russia demanding NATO's departure from Central and Eastern European countries, serious discussions are beginning both on the "old continent" and in the United States about increasing defense spending. What future awaits us? And what can this mean for our budget?
The latest words of Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov testify to how modern Russia is now thinking. He conditions the end of the conflict in Ukraine on the "departure of NATO" from Central and Eastern Europe. Russia thus intends to restore its sphere of influence. NATO assurances, which currently protect us from an external enemy, would be gone. All this is happening at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump, due to the war in Ukraine, is not yet able to push Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
Two percent won't save us
NATO defense ministers have therefore also approved new alliance commitments in June, which are to contribute to the defense of the alliance, announced NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. He described the agreement on alliance commitments as a historical milestone. The details of these plans are not public and reportedly run into dozens or hundreds of pages for each allied country, reported CTK.
According to Rutte, more money will be needed to achieve these goals. In this context, he is also proposing to increase the defense spending target to five percent of gross domestic product: 3.5 percent should be allocated to the military and 1.5 percent to broader security-related expenditures, such as infrastructure, cybersecurity, or health facility construction.
"The world is becoming more dangerous. There is a brutal war being waged by Russia against Ukraine, and there is also the threat of terrorism,"
Rutte was quoted by CTK.
Most countries are in favor of increasing expenditures
Last year, the Czech Republic spent 2.08 percent of its gross domestic product on defense. The government of Petr Fiala plans to increase spending to three percent by 2030. In case the opposition movement ANO would form a cabinet after the autumn elections, a similar scenario can be expected, as shadow Prime Minister and Deputy Chairman of the movement Karel Havlíček has confirmed several times in public.
The current target of 2 percent is met or exceeded by another 21 out of a total of 32 block members. One of them is also our western neighbor, Germany.
"We're spending a lot and we're going to spend even more,"
The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently said, confirming that his country plans to increase spending up to 5 percent.
On the other hand, in Slovakia, where a Putin-loyal cabinet is in power, local politicians are rather trying to outdo each other in lofty phrases that speak of an undefined measure that will help end the war in Ukraine.
"The atmosphere is half-crazy, a jump in defense spending is impossible,"
said the Prime Minister Robert Fico at a June press conference.
However, President Peter Pellegrini is of a different opinion, who confirmed that he would support a possible increase in expenditures.
American anti-missile shield
The American president Donald Trump calls for a five percent defense expenditure, saying that allies should reach an agreement at the summit in The Hague at the end of June. The United States itself has already come up with a project for its own space-based anti-missile shield Golden Dome worth 175 billion dollars, which is in conversion up to 3.9 trillion crowns. For the first time, it should also include weapon systems capable of neutralizing attacking missiles at all stages of flight, described the magazine Newstream.
The goal of this investment is the creation of a network of hundreds of satellites, which will track and intercept incoming missiles. The stated system, which should ensure defense of the United States territory from air attacks from 2029, has been designated by Russia as a destabilizing program. If the United States were to have highly effective missile defense, they could not only resist potential attacks in the future, but also destroy the attacker or even conduct a nuclear attack without the risk of retaliation.
Pie in the sky?
However, the question remains how all these plans will be fulfilled. After all, for example, in the European Union last year, the arms industry could not even cover the requirements of the armed forces of all Union states, as stated in our annual report by our Military Intelligence.
The current production is hampered not only by the need to strengthen production spaces and machine equipment, but also by a lack of labour force, raw materials, materials and components, as well as bureaucratic obstacles.
According to the report, there is a long-term lack of a sustainable system for managing defense expenditures and contracts in Europe.
"There is a risk that after the improvement of the security situation in Europe, the European armaments industry will return to the state before the Russian invasion of Ukraine,"
as stated in the text. During another security crisis, this would mean that the weapons industry could not respond adequately again.
Sources: author's article, ČTK, Newstream.cz, Military intelligence
