Hungary at a crossroads. Will it head further east, or will it return to Europe?
Hungary is set to have elections in mid-April. Will Viktor Orbán, who has been prime minister for about 16 years and is a strong ally of Andrej Babiš, come to an end? Polls suggest that the opposition party Tisza has a lead of around 8 to 10 percent. Will that be enough? The country's electoral system is very specific and largely favors the current ruling party, Fidesz.
The Hungarians have repeatedly chosen a strong leader in previous elections, who promised to defend their values and ensure economic prosperity. As a result of Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party dominating the political and economic life in the country, there has been an oligarchization of society, a gradual severing of ties with its partners in the European Union, and a shift towards the East. This was recently evident in the revelation that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó had been regularly informing Russia about European Union meetings. In fact, this politician travels to Moscow regularly. Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, he has visited there fifteen times!
Change in Elections and the EU as a Bogeyman
Fifteen years ago, a law aided Orbán's party in dominating Hungarian society by favoring larger parties in elections. This involved the purposeful redrawing of electoral district boundaries, with some representatives elected on a majority basis and others proportionally. Districts where leftist parties were winning were reorganized. These areas were merged with regions where Fidesz historically dominated. Previously balanced districts were divided or combined to favor candidates from Viktor Orbán's party.
Hungary has also been in long-standing conflict with the European Union. It criticizes the current form of the union by claiming it is a "European empire." It accuses Hungarian financier of Jewish origin George Soros of setting the union's agenda through international non-governmental organizations.
Orbán's government also approved a law that bans the dissemination of materials depicting homosexuality or gender change among persons under 18. This sparked controversy among European leaders, human rights organizations, LGBT+ activists, as well as many Hungarians who believe the law restricts freedom of expression and children's rights.
Birth of the Tisza Opposition Group
A turning point in the perception of Orbán's regime occurred two years ago when it was revealed that then-President Katalin Novák, nominated by Fidesz, pardoned former deputy director of a children's home, Endre Kónya. He was convicted for helping to cover up the sexual abuse of children by his superiors and for forcing one of the victims to change their testimony. Judit Varga, who was the Minister of Justice at the time the pardon was granted, resigned from her parliamentary mandate.
One of the elite members of Fidesz, Péter Magyar, left the party and became the leader of the Tisza party, which received just under 30 percent in the European Parliament elections after a few short months.
Election Battle
The difference between the two political currents has become fully apparent in recent months, just before the elections, which will take place in the country on April 12. While Orbán's style alarms with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country has been resisting Russian occupation for more than four years, and thunders that Hungary will not be a "colony of Brussels," Magyar positions himself against the current "corrupt government" and says he will kickstart the country's stagnant economy.
Although the local economy gradually recovered from the previous slowdown last year, with the growth rate of the gross domestic product approaching 2 percent, the labor market remains very tight. At the same time, wage growth in several sectors exceeds productivity growth.
According to current surveys by the 21 Kutatóközpont agency, which most accurately predicted the results of the 2024 European elections, Tisza would now receive 38 percent of the vote compared to 30 percent for Fidesz. Among decided voters, this ratio is even 51 to 41 percent.
Russian Card?
Orbán's camp and those he relies on are therefore becoming increasingly nervous. According to claims by European intelligence services, in February the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service considered staging an assassination attempt on the Hungarian prime minister, which would make state security and stability key topics in the pre-election campaign, themes Orbán banks on. This month, information surfaced indicating an increased presence of Russian experts in the Hungarian capital.
The outcome of the Hungarian elections will also impact Czech politics. If Orbán indeed loses and is unable to form a government, it won't be good news for his ally Andrej Babiš or Czech Foreign Minister Petr Macinka, who personally traveled to Budapest on Monday to support the current Hungarian Prime Minister during his election campaign.
However, it may have a positive impact on the future functioning of V4 group countries, which have stalled and lost credibility in recent years due to both Orbán and Slovak government leader Robert Fico. One of the biggest critics of the current Hungarian regime is particularly Poland.
"The report that Orbán's people inform Moscow about the EU Council meetings in the smallest details should not surprise anyone. We have had our suspicions about this for a long time. That is one of the reasons why I only express myself when it is absolutely necessary, and I say only as much as needed,"
quoted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk ČTK.
Sources: author's text, ČTK, Info.cz, Seznam Zprávy, iDnes, CzechTrade
