On the Level: Trump Might Lose His Swagger. A Path to His Removal from Office Exists
Although Donald Trump presents himself as a master of the world, invincible in both domestic and foreign politics, and mocks the scandals surrounding the ICE raids or his role in the Epstein Files, a turnaround may soon occur. He does not hold the presidency for life, and with this year's midterms, given the context of these scandals, there might be another attempt at his impeachment.
A significant shift in geopolitical events may occur this year. Since his second election victory, we have practically been hearing about Donald Trump every day, who behaves like an unrestricted ruler of the world, which has been demonstrated not only by sudden military operations in Venezuela or Iran, but also by boastful statements about annexing Greenland to the USA.
The American showbiz industry is launching sharp criticism of the president, particularly due to violence by anti-immigration agents (ICE) or Trump's role in the extensive criminal activities of Jeffrey Epstein involving human trafficking and mass sexual abuse. We've repeatedly heard this at film and music award ceremonies, which are always plentiful in the first months of the year in the USA.
Which is worse for Trump: Epstein or ICE?
For Donald Trump, these matters slide off smoothly like curling stones on a well-polished ice surface swept by a broom. The cause doesn't need to be sought in a behind-the-scenes usurpation of power. Republicans, under Trump's banner, achieved a crushing victory in the federal elections and, with the presidential office, took control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Thus, out of 218 Republicans in the lower chamber of Congress, 218 Trumps were created, and a similar fate befell 53 Republican senators.
There is no one who could confront Trump in any way other than verbally. However, this fall, America faces elections for both chambers of Congress (representatives are changed every two years, unlike in the Czech Republic), and 35 Senate seats will also be up for election.
If the president and his administration do not achieve tangible successes, fickle voters often elect an opposition composition in the legislative bodies during these so-called "midterms." No one knows how the elections will turn out. That Trump resolved nothing in Ukraine or pulled Maduro in pajamas is probably of little concern to Americans. Bombing a part of Iran also isn't, but if gasoline becomes significantly more expensive in the USA, then it's a problem.
However, significantly worse are the cases around the Epstein Files and especially the events surrounding ICE violence. Citizens murdered by these security forces with a peculiar status reminiscent of people's militias have faces, and Americans are sensitive to these individual stories.
The Probability of Impeachment is 84%
Trump will almost certainly lose the narrow majority in the House of Representatives and possibly in the Senate as well. He will thus aim for another record among American presidents. He would face a historically unique third impeachment, which is the process of charging the head of state and the only real option under the American Constitution to remove a president from office.
This would surpass the only president who has faced this process twice, none other than Donald Trump. Interestingly, aside from Trump's cases, the process was initiated only twice in history, against Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998. It was also planned for Richard Nixon, but he chose to resign on his own.
Traditionally, the lawsuit is filed by members of the lower house, and the senators act as the judicial tribunal. However, they can only convict the president with a two-thirds majority.
The statistical server 270towin gives the Republicans a 51% chance of retaining the majority in the upper chamber. If a small miracle were to happen and all Democratic candidates with a chance to occupy Republican seats won, they would gain about 10 additional seats. However, to secure a majority in the Senate for the president's conviction, they would need an additional 20 votes beyond the current count.
The hidden opposition to Trump among Republican congressmen is estimated to be individual cases. Therefore, Trump is still far from the unflattering title of the first president to be removed from office. However, he may well break his own record for the number of impeachments. Voters will decide on this already this year.
The probability that Congress will significantly complicate Trump's life after the Democrats' electoral victory in the lower house is, according to the mentioned prediction on 270towin, exactly 84%.
Sources: author's text, commentary, The Guardian, 270towin.com, aclu.org
