Fair's fair: Drone attack on Poland. The timing of the Russian provocation is not random
NATO planes launched in response to drones disrupting Polish airspace and several of them were shot down. Nobody was harmed, except for the roof of a Polish family house. However, the whole situation cannot be taken lightly. The Russians timed this provocation well and a look at international events in recent days shows that we are witnessing significant turbulence in the world order.
There is no doubt that the anabasis with Russian drones in Poland is a well-thought-out provocation from the Russian side. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine due to the Russian invasion, there are regularly intelligence warnings about Russian plans to attack a NATO member country. By coincidence, before these aggressive Russian plans, the army general Karel Řehka warned last week. The highest representative of the Czech army has had this information for some time and reminded that only force deterrence could prevent the escalation of the conflict.
Although it was not a direct military attack from Russia, but one of the cunning maneuvers, which however confirms forecasts that Russia is indeed considering a confrontation with NATO countries. Information from secret services is thus confirmed. Fortunately, a decisive response came, among other things, in the form of the launch of Dutch F-35s from the base in Malbork, which shot down several drones.
"Context for understanding what kind of morning Poland woke up to today: while Russian drones violated airspace, the largest assembly of Russian and Belarusian armies stands just beyond the borders in Belarus, as part of the Zapad2025 exercise, which also involves a rehearsal for an attack on Poland,"
warns X former CT correspondent in Poland, Andreas Papadopulos.
We can recall the days preceding the Ukrainian invasion when the concentration of Russian troops near its western borders and again in Belarus was considered an exercise and few believed in planning an invasion. Poland is, of course, in a different security situation than Russia, but the drone attack could have been not only a provocation but also a test.
Last week, Vladimir Putin also met again with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Of course, they meet regularly, but this time they put North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un next to them for the first time and put a gigantic military parade of Chinese fighting forces in front of them. Unlike Russia, such parades in China are not common and the last time we saw it was in 2015.
The meeting of three dictators in front of the assembled Chinese army carries a strong symbolic message. Sometimes there is talk of a "second cold war", which unlike the previous one will not be bipolar, but multipolar. Or directly about the establishment of a new "axis of evil".
What is happening at the same time in the European Parliament in Strasbourg? In the morning, after the end of the drone provocation in Poland, the President of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen is presenting a report on the state of the EU. Would the Russians, known for their quality espionage, not know about this? They probably wanted to hear what she had to say about their action.
Von der Leyen correctly pointed out that the decision lies in the hands of Europeans themselves. Unlike the countries represented by dictators at the Chinese military parade, together with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, there is political freedom in Europe with all that it entails. Thanks to economic freedom, Europeans are significantly richer than people in Russia or China.
However, those who offer the position of a dog on the back before the aggression of the Russian bear can freely strive for political influence here. They don't have a negligible support from the voters.
Of course, the representatives of the Polish state also responded to the situation.
"We are completely united with the president on this issue. Our other differences of opinion will not provide even a crack into which the enemy could put his dirty hands... From this day on, our disagreements are excluded,"
The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in speeches to the government and in the Sejm towards disagreements with the Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who represents the local opposition and so far has not missed a single opportunity to make life difficult for the local government.
Tusk also explained that he signed up to speak at the eastern border, the country's only real enemy. When drones from Russia explode live on their territory for our northern neighbors, indifference ends to the fact that Russian military aggression is somewhere far beyond the borders.
Of course, this also applies to us. An example could be the halting of flights at Polish airports due to disruption of their airspace (see introductory photo). Czechs regularly fly for routes from Polish airports. If Russia is given space to disrupt the airspace of countries in its neighborhood with its drones, the end could be near for comfortable and safe flying.
However, it is not the deranged dictator ruling in impoverished Russia who decides what will happen, but the willingness of Europeans to reprimand him. Whether we want to lie on our backs or show confidence is still a freely available decision.
